Old World Econometrics and New World Theory
نویسنده
چکیده
This paper summarizes recent work on the econometrics of identification in rational expectations models by myself and Andreas Beyer. In this work, we discuss the relationship between structure and reduced form in linear rational expectations models and we apply our analysis to a class of new Keynesian models that are frequently used to inform the policy debate. We argue that the identifying assumptions used in this literature are invalid and that linear rational expectations models are themselves subject to the Lucas critique of econometric policy evaluation. We introduce an alternative approach to identification that uses breaks in policy as natural experiments to help identify the private sector structural equations of a linear model.
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